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index.html
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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8">
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
<title>前言 | 医学研究中的生存数据建模</title>
<meta name="author" content="Wang Zhen">
<meta name="description" content="<p>This is a minimal example of using the bookdown package to write a book.
The HTML output format for this example is bookdown::gitbook,
set in the _output.yml file.</p>">
<meta name="generator" content="bookdown 0.38 with bs4_book()">
<meta property="og:title" content="前言 | 医学研究中的生存数据建模">
<meta property="og:type" content="book">
<meta property="og:description" content="<p>This is a minimal example of using the bookdown package to write a book.
The HTML output format for this example is bookdown::gitbook,
set in the _output.yml file.</p>">
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary">
<meta name="twitter:title" content="前言 | 医学研究中的生存数据建模">
<meta name="twitter:description" content="<p>This is a minimal example of using the bookdown package to write a book.
The HTML output format for this example is bookdown::gitbook,
set in the _output.yml file.</p>">
<!-- JS --><script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/clipboard.js/2.0.6/clipboard.min.js" integrity="sha256-inc5kl9MA1hkeYUt+EC3BhlIgyp/2jDIyBLS6k3UxPI=" crossorigin="anonymous"></script><script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/fuse.js/6.4.6/fuse.js" integrity="sha512-zv6Ywkjyktsohkbp9bb45V6tEMoWhzFzXis+LrMehmJZZSys19Yxf1dopHx7WzIKxr5tK2dVcYmaCk2uqdjF4A==" crossorigin="anonymous"></script><script src="https://kit.fontawesome.com/6ecbd6c532.js" crossorigin="anonymous"></script><script src="libs/jquery-3.6.0/jquery-3.6.0.min.js"></script><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, shrink-to-fit=no">
<link href="libs/bootstrap-4.6.0/bootstrap.min.css" rel="stylesheet">
<script src="libs/bootstrap-4.6.0/bootstrap.bundle.min.js"></script><script src="libs/bs3compat-0.7.0/transition.js"></script><script src="libs/bs3compat-0.7.0/tabs.js"></script><script src="libs/bs3compat-0.7.0/bs3compat.js"></script><link href="libs/bs4_book-1.0.0/bs4_book.css" rel="stylesheet">
<script src="libs/bs4_book-1.0.0/bs4_book.js"></script><script>
/* ========================================================================
* Bootstrap: transition.js v3.3.7
* http://getbootstrap.com/javascript/#transitions
* ========================================================================
* Copyright 2011-2016 Twitter, Inc.
* Licensed under MIT (https://github.com/twbs/bootstrap/blob/master/LICENSE)
* ======================================================================== */
+function ($) {
'use strict';
// CSS TRANSITION SUPPORT (Shoutout: http://www.modernizr.com/)
// ============================================================
function transitionEnd() {
var el = document.createElement('bootstrap')
var transEndEventNames = {
WebkitTransition : 'webkitTransitionEnd',
MozTransition : 'transitionend',
OTransition : 'oTransitionEnd otransitionend',
transition : 'transitionend'
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for (var name in transEndEventNames) {
if (el.style[name] !== undefined) {
return { end: transEndEventNames[name] }
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}
return false // explicit for ie8 ( ._.)
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// http://blog.alexmaccaw.com/css-transitions
$.fn.emulateTransitionEnd = function (duration) {
var called = false
var $el = this
$(this).one('bsTransitionEnd', function () { called = true })
var callback = function () { if (!called) $($el).trigger($.support.transition.end) }
setTimeout(callback, duration)
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$(function () {
$.support.transition = transitionEnd()
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delegateType: $.support.transition.end,
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</script><script>
/* ========================================================================
* Bootstrap: collapse.js v3.3.7
* http://getbootstrap.com/javascript/#collapse
* ========================================================================
* Copyright 2011-2016 Twitter, Inc.
* Licensed under MIT (https://github.com/twbs/bootstrap/blob/master/LICENSE)
* ======================================================================== */
/* jshint latedef: false */
+function ($) {
'use strict';
// COLLAPSE PUBLIC CLASS DEFINITION
// ================================
var Collapse = function (element, options) {
this.$element = $(element)
this.options = $.extend({}, Collapse.DEFAULTS, options)
this.$trigger = $('[data-toggle="collapse"][href="#' + element.id + '"],' +
'[data-toggle="collapse"][data-target="#' + element.id + '"]')
this.transitioning = null
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toggle: true
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this.$element.trigger(startEvent)
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Plugin.call(actives, 'hide')
activesData || actives.data('bs.collapse', null)
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this.$element
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.addClass('collapsing')[dimension](0)
.attr('aria-expanded', true)
this.$trigger
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.attr('aria-expanded', true)
this.transitioning = 1
var complete = function () {
this.$element
.removeClass('collapsing')
.addClass('collapse in')[dimension]('')
this.transitioning = 0
this.$element
.trigger('shown.bs.collapse')
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var scrollSize = $.camelCase(['scroll', dimension].join('-'))
this.$element
.one('bsTransitionEnd', $.proxy(complete, this))
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this.$element.trigger(startEvent)
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this.$element[dimension](this.$element[dimension]())[0].offsetHeight
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|| (href = $trigger.attr('href')) && href.replace(/.*(?=#[^\s]+$)/, '') // strip for ie7
return $(target)
}
// COLLAPSE PLUGIN DEFINITION
// ==========================
function Plugin(option) {
return this.each(function () {
var $this = $(this)
var data = $this.data('bs.collapse')
var options = $.extend({}, Collapse.DEFAULTS, $this.data(), typeof option == 'object' && option)
if (!data && options.toggle && /show|hide/.test(option)) options.toggle = false
if (!data) $this.data('bs.collapse', (data = new Collapse(this, options)))
if (typeof option == 'string') data[option]()
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var old = $.fn.collapse
$.fn.collapse = Plugin
$.fn.collapse.Constructor = Collapse
// COLLAPSE NO CONFLICT
// ====================
$.fn.collapse.noConflict = function () {
$.fn.collapse = old
return this
}
// COLLAPSE DATA-API
// =================
$(document).on('click.bs.collapse.data-api', '[data-toggle="collapse"]', function (e) {
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if (!$this.attr('data-target')) e.preventDefault()
var $target = getTargetFromTrigger($this)
var data = $target.data('bs.collapse')
var option = data ? 'toggle' : $this.data()
Plugin.call($target, option)
})
}(jQuery);
</script><script>
window.initializeCodeFolding = function(show) {
// handlers for show-all and hide all
$("#rmd-show-all-code").click(function() {
$('div.r-code-collapse').each(function() {
$(this).collapse('show');
});
});
$("#rmd-hide-all-code").click(function() {
$('div.r-code-collapse').each(function() {
$(this).collapse('hide');
});
});
// index for unique code element ids
var currentIndex = 1;
// select all R code blocks
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rCodeBlocks.each(function() {
// create a collapsable div to wrap the code in
var div = $('<div class="collapse r-code-collapse"></div>');
if (show)
div.addClass('in');
var id = 'rcode-643E0F36' + currentIndex++;
div.attr('id', id);
$(this).before(div);
$(this).detach().appendTo(div);
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var showCodeButton = $('<button type="button" class="btn btn-default btn-xs code-folding-btn pull-right"></button>');
showCodeButton.append(showCodeText);
showCodeButton
.attr('data-toggle', 'collapse')
.attr('data-target', '#' + id)
.attr('aria-expanded', show)
.attr('aria-controls', id);
var buttonRow = $('<div class="row"></div>');
var buttonCol = $('<div class="col-md-12"></div>');
buttonCol.append(showCodeButton);
buttonRow.append(buttonCol);
div.before(buttonRow);
// update state of button on show/hide
div.on('hidden.bs.collapse', function () {
showCodeText.text('Code');
});
div.on('show.bs.collapse', function () {
showCodeText.text('Hide');
});
});
}
</script><script>
/* ========================================================================
* Bootstrap: dropdown.js v3.3.7
* http://getbootstrap.com/javascript/#dropdowns
* ========================================================================
* Copyright 2011-2016 Twitter, Inc.
* Licensed under MIT (https://github.com/twbs/bootstrap/blob/master/LICENSE)
* ======================================================================== */
+function ($) {
'use strict';
// DROPDOWN CLASS DEFINITION
// =========================
var backdrop = '.dropdown-backdrop'
var toggle = '[data-toggle="dropdown"]'
var Dropdown = function (element) {
$(element).on('click.bs.dropdown', this.toggle)
}
Dropdown.VERSION = '3.3.7'
function getParent($this) {
var selector = $this.attr('data-target')
if (!selector) {
selector = $this.attr('href')
selector = selector && /#[A-Za-z]/.test(selector) && selector.replace(/.*(?=#[^\s]*$)/, '') // strip for ie7
}
var $parent = selector && $(selector)
return $parent && $parent.length ? $parent : $this.parent()
}
function clearMenus(e) {
if (e && e.which === 3) return
$(backdrop).remove()
$(toggle).each(function () {
var $this = $(this)
var $parent = getParent($this)
var relatedTarget = { relatedTarget: this }
if (!$parent.hasClass('open')) return
if (e && e.type == 'click' && /input|textarea/i.test(e.target.tagName) && $.contains($parent[0], e.target)) return
$parent.trigger(e = $.Event('hide.bs.dropdown', relatedTarget))
if (e.isDefaultPrevented()) return
$this.attr('aria-expanded', 'false')
$parent.removeClass('open').trigger($.Event('hidden.bs.dropdown', relatedTarget))
})
}
Dropdown.prototype.toggle = function (e) {
var $this = $(this)
if ($this.is('.disabled, :disabled')) return
var $parent = getParent($this)
var isActive = $parent.hasClass('open')
clearMenus()
if (!isActive) {
if ('ontouchstart' in document.documentElement && !$parent.closest('.navbar-nav').length) {
// if mobile we use a backdrop because click events don't delegate
$(document.createElement('div'))
.addClass('dropdown-backdrop')
.insertAfter($(this))
.on('click', clearMenus)
}
var relatedTarget = { relatedTarget: this }
$parent.trigger(e = $.Event('show.bs.dropdown', relatedTarget))
if (e.isDefaultPrevented()) return
$this
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.attr('aria-expanded', 'true')
$parent
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.trigger($.Event('shown.bs.dropdown', relatedTarget))
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return false
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Dropdown.prototype.keydown = function (e) {
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function Plugin(option) {
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var $this = $(this)
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$.fn.dropdown.Constructor = Dropdown
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$(document)
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right: 0;
left: auto;
}
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display: block;
}
.dropdown-menu {
position: absolute;
top: 100%;
left: 0;
z-index: 1000;
display: none;
float: left;
min-width: 160px;
padding: 5px 0;
margin: 2px 0 0;
font-size: 14px;
text-align: left;
list-style: none;
background-color: #fff;
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background-clip: padding-box;
border: 1px solid #ccc;
border: 1px solid rgba(0,0,0,.15);
border-radius: 4px;
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box-shadow: 0 6px 12px rgba(0,0,0,.175);
}
</style>
<script>
$(document).ready(function () {
window.initializeCodeFolding("show" === "show");
});
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<a href="index.html" title="">医学研究中的生存数据建模</a>
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<li><a class="active" href="index.html">前言</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="%E4%BD%9C%E8%80%85%E4%BB%8B%E7%BB%8D.html">作者介绍</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="%E7%9B%AE%E5%BD%95.html">目录</a></li>
<li class="book-part">正文</li>
<li><a class="" href="chap1.html"><span class="header-section-number">1</span> 生存分析</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap2.html"><span class="header-section-number">2</span> 一些非参数程序</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap3.html"><span class="header-section-number">3</span> Cox 回归模型</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="cox-%E5%9B%9E%E5%BD%92%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html">►Cox 回归模型</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap4.html"><span class="header-section-number">4</span> Cox 回归模型的模型检查</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap5.html"><span class="header-section-number">5</span> 参数回归模型</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="%E5%8F%82%E6%95%B0%E5%9B%9E%E5%BD%92%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B.html">►参数回归模型</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap6.html"><span class="header-section-number">6</span> 灵活的参数模型</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap7.html"><span class="header-section-number">7</span> 参数模型的模型检查</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap8.html"><span class="header-section-number">8</span> 时依变量</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap9.html"><span class="header-section-number">9</span> 区间删失生存数据</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap10.html"><span class="header-section-number">10</span> 脆弱模型</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap11.html"><span class="header-section-number">11</span> 非比例风险和机构的比较</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap12.html"><span class="header-section-number">12</span> 竞争风险</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap13.html"><span class="header-section-number">13</span> 多次事件和事件史分析</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap14.html"><span class="header-section-number">14</span> 相依删失</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap15.html"><span class="header-section-number">15</span> 生存研究的样本量要求</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap16.html"><span class="header-section-number">16</span> 贝叶斯生存分析</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="chap17.html"><span class="header-section-number">17</span> 使用 R 进行生存分析</a></li>
<li class="book-part">附录</li>
<li><a class="" href="A.html"><span class="header-section-number">A</span> 最大似然估计</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="B.html"><span class="header-section-number">B</span> 额外数据集</a></li>
<li class="book-part">—</li>
<li><a class="" href="bib.html">参考书目</a></li>
<li><a class="" href="exm.html">示例索引</a></li>
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</header><main class="col-sm-12 col-md-9 col-lg-7" id="content"><!--bookdown:title:end--><!--bookdown:title:start--><div id="前言" class="section level1 unnumbered">
<h1>前言<a class="anchor" aria-label="anchor" href="#%E5%89%8D%E8%A8%80"><i class="fas fa-link"></i></a>
</h1>
<p>本书为 <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Modelling-Survival-Data-in-Medical-Research/Collett/p/book/9781032252858">Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research 4th Edition, by David Collett</a> 的翻译。翻译的目的有二：</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>现有的生存分析中文专著屈指可数，其中能与原书在内容的广度和深度方面对标的数量为 <span class="math inline">\(\log1\)</span>；</li>
<li>在人类彻底被 AI 取代之前，或至少翻译的工作被 AI 取代之前，或至少专著翻译的工作被 AI 取代之前，译者希望能有所贡献。</li>
</ol>
<p>可以说，对于那些愿意付出必要努力来为生存数据适当建模的研究者，本书是难得的宝藏。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“There are no routine statistical questions, only questionable statistical routines.” - D. R. Cox</p>
</blockquote>
<p>可点击带 <span class="math inline">\(\blacktriangleright\)</span> 的标题以展开图表，例如</p>
<details><summary><font color="#8B2232">点我看本书封面</font>
</summary><img src="figure/cover.png#center" style="width:80.0%"></details><p><br>
排版说明：</p>
<ul>
<li>由于第 3 章和第 5 章篇幅较长、公式较多，为减少渲染时间，已将这两章划分为两个页面。尽管如此，每次打开页面仍需加载一段时间；</li>
<li>丰富的示例贯穿全书，为方便跳转，示例均给出了交叉引用；</li>
<li>图表一般都在上下文中，不给出交叉引用；对于所跨章节较多的图表，会在上下文中重复给出；</li>
<li>为保持阅读的连贯性，图表均已折叠（如上面的封面图片）。</li>
</ul>
<p>阅读提示：</p>
<ul>
<li>左侧为“章”的导航栏，右侧为各章中“节”的导航栏；</li>
<li>左上角的搜索框一般需要两个字及以上的关键词才会显示结果（例如搜索“风”不显示结果，而搜索“风险”会给出结果），原因不详；</li>
<li>本书给出了丰富的超链接，为方便对照阅读，可按住 Ctrl 后点击超链接以打开新的标签页。</li>
</ul>
<p>水平不足，能力有限。Email: <a href="mailto:[email protected]" class="email">[email protected]</a></p>
<div id="原书前言" class="section level2 unnumbered">
<h2>原书前言<a class="anchor" aria-label="anchor" href="#%E5%8E%9F%E4%B9%A6%E5%89%8D%E8%A8%80"><i class="fas fa-link"></i></a>
</h2>
<p>本书描述并说明了使用来自生物医学研究的各种例子对生存数据进行分析的建模方法。我在介绍这一主题的多场讲座和课程（包括入门和高级水平）方面的经验，以及在提供生存数据分析建议方面的经验，对其内容产生了重大影响。最终呈现的是一本关于中等水平生存分析的全面实用的书，我希望它将继续满足制药行业和生物医学研究中心的统计学家、分析自己数据的科学家和临床医生，以及攻读本科或研究生生存分析课程的学生们的需求。</p>
<p>本版有一个关于贝叶斯生存分析的新章节，以反映这种方法越来越受欢迎。鉴于现代统计方法实施的计算机软件资源越来越丰富，其他章节已被改写或广泛修订。具体来说，对关于参数模型的第 <a href="chap5.html#chap5">5</a> 章进行了修订，并在新的第 <a href="chap6.html#chap6">6</a> 章中描述了基于样条的风险和累积风险函数的参数模型。已重写关于区间删失生存数据的第 <a href="chap9.html#chap9">9</a> 章，以提供分析这类数据的现代方法。此外，还纳入了有关评估拟合模型的预测能力、纵向和生存数据的联合建模以及分段指数模型的新内容。R 软件现在广泛用于生存数据的分析，这不仅是因为该软件能跟上统计发展，还因为它对所有人都是免费开放的。新增的最后一章展示了如何使用 R 软件实现本书中所述的方法，并指导读者如何解读输出结果，以及如何将这些结果与前面章节使用的示例进行对照理解。</p>
<p>本书的主要部分由第 <a href="chap1.html#chap1">1</a> 章到第 <a href="chap7.html#chap7">7</a> 章组成。在第 <a href="chap1.html#chap1">1</a> 章中介绍了生存分析之后，第 <a href="chap2.html#chap2">2</a> 章描述了总结生存数据和比较两组或两组以上生存时间的方法。第 <a href="chap3.html#chap3">3</a> 章介绍了建模方法，其中详细介绍了 Cox 回归模型。接下来的一章介绍了检查拟合模型的充分性的方法。第 <a href="chap5.html#chap5">5</a> 章介绍了参数比例风险模型和加速失效时间模型。在第 <a href="chap6.html#chap6">6</a> 章关于灵活参数模型之后，第 <a href="chap7.html#chap7">7</a> 章介绍了参数模型的模型检查诊断。</p>
<p>其余章节描述了基本模型的一些扩展。第 <a href="chap8.html#chap8">8</a> 章介绍了时依变量的使用，第 <a href="chap9.html#chap9">9</a> 章考虑了区间删失数据的分析。第 <a href="chap10.html#chap10">10</a> 章介绍了脆弱模型，以允许使用随机效应对个体或个体组之间的差异进行建模。第 <a href="chap11.html#chap11">11</a> 章总结了在无法做出比例风险假设时可以使用的技术，并展示了如何使用这些模型来比较多个机构的生存结局。第 <a href="chap12.html#chap12">12</a> 章介绍了包含不同死因的竞争风险模型，而第 <a href="chap13.html#chap13">13</a> 章则描述了 Cox 回归模型的扩展，以应对相同或不同类型的多次事件，包括事件历史分析。第 <a href="chap14.html#chap14">14</a> 章总结了当存在相依删失时分析数据的方法，第 <a href="chap15.html#chap15">15</a> 章介绍了如何确定以生存时间为结果变量的研究的样本量要求。第 <a href="chap16.html#chap16">16</a> 章和第 <a href="chap17.html#chap17">17</a> 章分别介绍了贝叶斯方法和 R 软件的使用。</p>
<p>每一章都包含足够的方法细节，以便读者对技术和它们所基于的假设有深入的理解，并帮助读者调整方法来处理非标准问题。前面几章中的一些例子是基于较少的观测数据构建的，这比通常的生物医学研究项目要少。这使得分析方法更容易被阐明，同时也方便将表格形式的结果展示与从计算机软件获得的输出结果进行对比。附录中给出了一些额外的数据集，可用于更全面地理解方法论，或作为学生练习。本书中使用的所有数据集均可以电子形式从出版商的网站 <a href="https://www.routledge.com" class="uri">https://www.routledge.com</a> 获取。（译者注：具体链接为<a href="https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3-euw1-ap-pe-ws4-cws-documents.ri-prod/9781032252858/Data%20sets%20from%20Modelling%20Survival%20Data%20in%20Medical%20Research%2C%204th%20edition.zip">这里</a>）</p>
<p>在撰写本书时，我假定读者具有统计方法的基本知识，并且对线性回归分析有一定的了解。有时会使用矩阵代数，但了解线性代数并不是必要条件。每章末尾都给出了参考书目说明和延伸阅读的建议，但为了不中断流程，文本本身的参考文献已保持在最低限度。</p>
<p>我感谢已故的 Doug Altman, James Gallagher, Alan Kimber, Sandro Leidi, Mike Patefield, Anne Whitehead 和 John Whitehead 在准备本书当前版本和早期版本时提供的帮助，并感谢 NHS 血液和移植部门的允许在许多示例中使用来自英国移植登记处的数据。我特别感谢所有不厌其烦地告诉我早期版本中的错误的人。尽管这些内容已得到纠正，但我很高兴获悉本版本中的任何进一步错误、歧义和遗漏：<a href="mailto:[email protected]" class="email">[email protected]</a>。最后，我要感谢我的妻子 Janet 在本书写作期间的支持和鼓励。</p>
<p>David Collett</p>
<p>October 2022</p>
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