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Fix note about Income Tax in Autumn Statement post #876

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Nov 23, 2023
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Fix note about Income Tax in Autumn Statement post #876

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12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions src/posts/autumn-statement-2023.md
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Expand Up @@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ Compared to a counterfactual where benefits are not uprated at all, we estimate

Hunt also announced a number of other reforms not modelled in PolicyEngine, including a freeze on alcohol duty, additional business tax breaks, investment in AI and manufacturing, and a rise in the minimum wage.

He notably did _not_ announce reforms that outlets had previously reported he was considering, such as lowering the basic rate of Income Tax from 19p to 18p ([the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/aafea716-30d5-4518-98fe-169f6995173e)) or cutting Stamp Duty and Inheritance tax ([The Times](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/autumn-statement-2023-predictions-jeremy-hunt-budget-tax-cuts-03sms6x82)).
He notably did _not_ announce reforms that outlets had previously reported he was considering, such as lowering the basic rate of Income Tax from 20p to 19p ([the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/aafea716-30d5-4518-98fe-169f6995173e)) or cutting Stamp Duty and Inheritance tax ([The Times](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/autumn-statement-2023-predictions-jeremy-hunt-budget-tax-cuts-03sms6x82)).

## Household impacts of NIC cuts

Expand All @@ -68,14 +68,14 @@ Our estimates exceed those from HM Treasury by about 12%, disproportionately due

| Reform | HM Treasury | PolicyEngine | Relative difference | PolicyEngine link |
| ---------------------------------- | ----------- | ------------ | ------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Lower Class 1 NICs from 12% to 10% | 8.72 | 9.69 | 11.3% | [#28973](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=28973&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1) |
| Lower Class 4 NICs from 9% to 8% | 0.35 | 0.44 | 26.9% | [#37642](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=37642&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1) |
| Abolish Class 2 NICs | 0.38 | 0.42 | 9.4% | [#37665](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=37665&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1) |
| Total | 9.44 | 10.54 | 11.8% | [#37636](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=37636&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1) |
| Lower Class 1 NICs from 12% to 10% | 8.72 | 9.69 | 11.2% | [#28973](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=28973&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1) |
| Lower Class 4 NICs from 9% to 8% | 0.35 | 0.44 | 26.9% | [#37642](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=37642&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1) |
| Abolish Class 2 NICs | 0.38 | 0.41 | 8.8% | [#37665](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=37665&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1) |
| Total | 9.44 | 10.54 | 11.7% | [#37636](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=37636&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1) |

### Distributional impacts

Households in the bottom income decile would [gain an average of £12](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.decileAverageImpact&reform=37636&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1), while those in the top decile would gain an average of £501.
Households in the bottom income decile would [gain an average of £12](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.decileAverageImpact&reform=37636&region=uk&timePeriod=2024&baseline=1), while those in the top decile would gain an average of £1,067.

![Figure 3: Relative impact by income decile of Autumn Budget NI reforms](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/6076111/284982468-181d24ac-ff5c-498b-95eb-35a1311af7bb.png)

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